Property Research - Global Residential Cities Index Q2 2020
- Izmir - The City with the Highest Rate of Annual Growth in the year to June 2020 (28%)
- 3.4% - Average Annual Price Growth across 150 Cities
- 19% - The Percentage of Cities registering an Annual Price Decline
- 16 - The Number of Cities Registering Double-Digit Price Increases
- Stockholm - Saw Annual Price Growth Increase by 6% in the Year to June 2020
The index’s annual rate of growth declined marginally from 3.6% to 3.4% between March and June this year. Not surprising, given most housing markets were stopped in their tracks by the pandemic in the second quarter with transactions unable to complete. Nevertheless, the index is still recording growth on a par with that seen in 2018 and 2019 (Fig 1).
That said, there are some indications of weakening performance. Firstly, the percentage of cities seeing prices fall year-on-year increased from 15% to 19% between March and June this year. Secondly, the number of cities recording double-digit prices rises on an annualbasis declined from 20 to 16 over the samethree-month period.
Turkish cities now occupy the top three rankings. The fundamentals of strong demand and constrained supply explain the level of growth along with a weakening lira. The population of Turkey has increased by 12 million to 83 million in the last decade alone according to the World Bank. The weak lira – now close to 7.6 to the US dollar - is also boosting demand from gulf countries.
European cities now account for two of the top ten rankings, down from four a year ago with Luxembourg the strongest performer, up 14%.
Italian cities registered price growth of 3% on average, up from 0% a year earlier, with Milan leading the way with annual growth of 11%.
Two of the three Swedish cities we track, where no formal lockdown was enforced, have seen their rate of growth increase since March. Stockholm saw annual price growth rise from 5% to 6% and Gothenburg from 2% to 4%.
Phoenix leads the US cities we track with price growth of 9%. On average, US cities have seen their annual rate of growth drop from 4.2% in March to 3.9% in June.
What we’ll be watching in Q3 2020:
- Any regional variations in performance
- Whether housing markets in tourist driven economies are more heavily impacted by the pandemic
- If second surges of the pandemic put a brake on sentiment, demand and hence price growth
- The extent to which supply constraints in several tier one cities insulate prices
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